Swansea or Hull? A Statistical Take on the Relegation Battle

With 4 games left in the Premier League season, much of the once complicated relegation battle has fizzled out. Crystal Palace and Leicester have separated themselves from the bottom, while Sunderland and Middlesbrough are all but relegated at this point. The general consensus around the league is that the final relegation spot will be occupied by either Hull City or Swansea City. In this post, we are going to take a look at 5 statistical comparisons that will, in the end, lead us to who will be in the Prem next season.

1. Strength of Schedule

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When it comes to the remaining fixtures, Hull City has a big advantage. Aside from their final fixture against Spurs, their other 3 games are very winnable for the Tigers. As for Swansea, a trip to Old Trafford and homestands against Everton and West Brom could prove to be very tricky.

Advantage: Hull City


2. Playing StyleSARA-2.jpg

Because technically both teams will be underdogs in 3 of their 4 remaining matches, they will have to adapt a counterattacking style of play, in which they take advantage of every chance they get. So far, Hull City have looked much more of a threat on the counter, although their set piece abilities are joint 4th in the league, meaning both sides are well equipped for the challenges ahead.

Advantage: Hull City


3. Clinical Ability

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With the end-of-season pressure weighing heavily on teams and players, teams in the relegation battle often struggle to create chances in games. With that in mind, one of the key components of any survival stories is the ability to be clinical in front of goal. If you can’t make a lot of chances, you sure better be able to convert them.

Advantage: Swansea City


4. Star Player

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When a side desperately needs a lifeline, their star player has to step up and put them on their back. For Hull, that man has to be striker Oumar Niasse, while Swansea have depended on Gylfi Sigurdsson. This isn’t even really a contest in my opinion; Sigurdsson is much more capable of carrying his side to safety than Niasse is, who has not created enough chances for himself.

Advantage: Swansea City


5. Final Game of the Season

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This battle very well could come down to the final day of the season, where both teams are playing at home to top 10 sides. Hull’s opponent, however, are going to be much tougher to beat, having won 8 matches in a row. Swansea’s, on the other hand, have lost 3 in a row, and don’t really have anything to play for. They both have been great recently at home, however Spurs’ have proven they can win tough games on the road, while West Brom have taken just 15 away points this season

Advantage: Swansea City


So there you have it: Swansea City should be poised to survive this season, just edging out Hull 3-2 in this comparison. Be sure to vote below and let us know what you think in the comments!

Author: Nik

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